Paintball - 2012 Winner
From Thursdays enjoyable day out at Wincanton where a few winners were found to the last day at work for a week or so whilst the Cheltenham Festival sets the jumping world on fire! We get ever closer to the festival and it's sure to be a good meeting indeed. A bonus which lingers in every national hunt trainers brains is the Imperial Cup which is contested at Sandown on the Saturday before Cheltenham and is where the same winner of each race wins a nice prize. Gaspara is a horse we all know very well who took the last bonus, by winning the Imperial Cup, before going on to wins a race at the Cheltenham Festival. Last winner’s year was Paintball, who failed to achieve what many horses haven't. It does take some getting and I'm sure this year, the bonus won’t be hit. Here are my thoughts on the Imperial Cup at Sandown:
From the bottom, Barizan, who is trained by Evan Williams was one of the top juveniles a few seasons ago and contested the early jumps season crown with a horse I was with called Rupestrian (Sadly pulled up in the triumph before going wrong next time at Chepstow and is now just filling up a box down at Tim Vaughan's). He was remembered for his heroic front running performance in the Triumph Hurdle, before being beaten by Soldatino of Nicky Henderson. He is a quirky little thing and had been in the doldrums prior to his win last time. For me he lacks the class to win this race and any type of race at Cheltenham next week and would be more advised for a handicap hurdle in the summer at the likes of Stratford or Worcester. Rockawango also looks like he will struggle in this, with his form behind the Cayman Islands and although finishing ahead of short-priced longest traveller of 'The Tracey Shuffle' last time out, Simply Ned beat him that day and I think he is being too highly aimed. Another who also looks too highly tried is Sporting Boy of Michael Blake. As with Cayman Islands, he isn't one that tempts me, with some in and out displays of late.
I am a firm believer in strong trends and the last top weight horse to win the Imperial Cup was back in 1998, I was 6 then and that feels a long time ago. Although, Tanerko Emery is a very good horse, but standing firm next to this trend, means he is dismissed. From seeing Valdez in the paddock from his first run when I was at Newbury, It never really struck me as him being a handicapper and to be honest, although his form isn't too bad, I won’t be picking him anytime soon. He didn't strike me as a horse that puts in 110% and Alan King's string hasn't been in the best form this season. Claret Cloak didn't run any fort of race in the Betfair Hurdle last time and with the ground looking soft again, you would wonder why he runs well today as the ground isn't in his favour. Whitby Jack went off favourite the last twice and his run at Ascot taught me a few things about him. When it came to being gritty, he didn't want to know and was brushed aside last time fairly convincingly. As with Changingtheguard and Minella Definitley, they don’t have the credentials of a worthy winner of this race, both not showing anything more than other handicaps sorts who have had long campaigns and again with Barizan, their time will come. Lyvuis of Nicky Henderson won at very skimpy odds at Warwick last season and a few runs after, he won when I was Newbury. His last two runs he has been beaten by 90 lengths and the only reason you could have a few quid each way on him would be because of his trainer. His stable mate First In the Queue is a hard one to judge and by looking at his mark, he looks well held.
Solaris Exhibition of Tim Vaughan's won two on the trot up north before some runs on the flat since. Large price and with Tim Vaughan's form at Cheltenham being an uninspiring 0-77. Le Bacardy is too inexperienced for me to select him, only the two jump runs to go by for Tony Carroll, he could be a nice sort in the future, but is left today. The quite aptly named 'Stormy Weather' will probably be backed by people out there because of the weather, but for form reasons, it can’t be can it? Last year’s winner Paintball (Pictured) has drop back down to 130, which is 1 lb higher than last year. The return to the track should suit and he isn't that bad of a bet. However, to win this race 2 years on the trot is some achievement considering his form of late. It hasn't been overall great. Mr Mole, the favourite at present, does have some ability, how much? We don’t know.
He could be very good, but he could be something ordinary. He never likes to get the job done easily and as proven at Taunton last time, when asked to quicken, he was looking round and not looking a horse you could back with confidence in a race like this. General Miller was some horse in his younger days, before having a few problems and after a bit of a lay-off, last time he never caught the eye at Ascot. I'd love to see him win this race but I think he may be a tad short on today’s opposition. First Avenue who is fairly fancied by @tipstertony and backed at odds of 50/1 (Now 22's best), an exposed sort, but loves the ground and could be staying on at the finish. The bonus for this one is more than likely a dream but it wouldn't be a total shock him winning today and the 8 year old could take some place money home. Lacks the profile I'm looking for however. Pine Creek of John Ferguson has some eye-catching form, with 3 runs over jumps, his only defeat behind a nice horse of Charlie Mann's Lord of House. His wins at Leicester and Doncaster have been on flat tracks and it took some getting last time at Doncaster for the 5 year old. He looks a bit in-experienced for me and might find the hustle and bustle a bit too much. I might be proven wrong however. Tominator strikes me as a longer distance horse, with his wins needing every yard. His Cheltenham running wasn't his true colours and he justified that at Sandown last time out. His jumping could cost him in this contest, so hold your horses! Has the ability to run very well but maybe another season is needed before he gets my full backing. Shammick Boy for me could be thrown in after his Chepstow run or it could be that he didn't have much to beat that day. The flatter track will suit him but I'm sure he is more of a chaser in his own way and is left alone. The two selections which I am picking and only just realising both ran in the same race at Cheltenham last year are KAZLIAN and ARNAUD. The former who is trained by David Pipe who made a cracking front running performance last year at the festival before being run out of it and this year he hasn't really had much look at getting to the front. I wouldn’t be surprised if he sat near the front and got them all at it. One that he might have at it is Arnaud, who you can see that he is a daw stayer and will need to get stuck in with a few to jump. The both finished 4th (Kazlian) and 5th (Arnaud) in last year’s Fred Winter and showed they are well thought of. Both worthy of each-way support in what looks an open race.
That's all folks, a long write up, but hopefully one of them may be able to run on into next week! Follow me at blue_bajan or send us an email on [email protected] on your thoughts on the race! BE LUCKY :D
From the bottom, Barizan, who is trained by Evan Williams was one of the top juveniles a few seasons ago and contested the early jumps season crown with a horse I was with called Rupestrian (Sadly pulled up in the triumph before going wrong next time at Chepstow and is now just filling up a box down at Tim Vaughan's). He was remembered for his heroic front running performance in the Triumph Hurdle, before being beaten by Soldatino of Nicky Henderson. He is a quirky little thing and had been in the doldrums prior to his win last time. For me he lacks the class to win this race and any type of race at Cheltenham next week and would be more advised for a handicap hurdle in the summer at the likes of Stratford or Worcester. Rockawango also looks like he will struggle in this, with his form behind the Cayman Islands and although finishing ahead of short-priced longest traveller of 'The Tracey Shuffle' last time out, Simply Ned beat him that day and I think he is being too highly aimed. Another who also looks too highly tried is Sporting Boy of Michael Blake. As with Cayman Islands, he isn't one that tempts me, with some in and out displays of late.
I am a firm believer in strong trends and the last top weight horse to win the Imperial Cup was back in 1998, I was 6 then and that feels a long time ago. Although, Tanerko Emery is a very good horse, but standing firm next to this trend, means he is dismissed. From seeing Valdez in the paddock from his first run when I was at Newbury, It never really struck me as him being a handicapper and to be honest, although his form isn't too bad, I won’t be picking him anytime soon. He didn't strike me as a horse that puts in 110% and Alan King's string hasn't been in the best form this season. Claret Cloak didn't run any fort of race in the Betfair Hurdle last time and with the ground looking soft again, you would wonder why he runs well today as the ground isn't in his favour. Whitby Jack went off favourite the last twice and his run at Ascot taught me a few things about him. When it came to being gritty, he didn't want to know and was brushed aside last time fairly convincingly. As with Changingtheguard and Minella Definitley, they don’t have the credentials of a worthy winner of this race, both not showing anything more than other handicaps sorts who have had long campaigns and again with Barizan, their time will come. Lyvuis of Nicky Henderson won at very skimpy odds at Warwick last season and a few runs after, he won when I was Newbury. His last two runs he has been beaten by 90 lengths and the only reason you could have a few quid each way on him would be because of his trainer. His stable mate First In the Queue is a hard one to judge and by looking at his mark, he looks well held.
Solaris Exhibition of Tim Vaughan's won two on the trot up north before some runs on the flat since. Large price and with Tim Vaughan's form at Cheltenham being an uninspiring 0-77. Le Bacardy is too inexperienced for me to select him, only the two jump runs to go by for Tony Carroll, he could be a nice sort in the future, but is left today. The quite aptly named 'Stormy Weather' will probably be backed by people out there because of the weather, but for form reasons, it can’t be can it? Last year’s winner Paintball (Pictured) has drop back down to 130, which is 1 lb higher than last year. The return to the track should suit and he isn't that bad of a bet. However, to win this race 2 years on the trot is some achievement considering his form of late. It hasn't been overall great. Mr Mole, the favourite at present, does have some ability, how much? We don’t know.
He could be very good, but he could be something ordinary. He never likes to get the job done easily and as proven at Taunton last time, when asked to quicken, he was looking round and not looking a horse you could back with confidence in a race like this. General Miller was some horse in his younger days, before having a few problems and after a bit of a lay-off, last time he never caught the eye at Ascot. I'd love to see him win this race but I think he may be a tad short on today’s opposition. First Avenue who is fairly fancied by @tipstertony and backed at odds of 50/1 (Now 22's best), an exposed sort, but loves the ground and could be staying on at the finish. The bonus for this one is more than likely a dream but it wouldn't be a total shock him winning today and the 8 year old could take some place money home. Lacks the profile I'm looking for however. Pine Creek of John Ferguson has some eye-catching form, with 3 runs over jumps, his only defeat behind a nice horse of Charlie Mann's Lord of House. His wins at Leicester and Doncaster have been on flat tracks and it took some getting last time at Doncaster for the 5 year old. He looks a bit in-experienced for me and might find the hustle and bustle a bit too much. I might be proven wrong however. Tominator strikes me as a longer distance horse, with his wins needing every yard. His Cheltenham running wasn't his true colours and he justified that at Sandown last time out. His jumping could cost him in this contest, so hold your horses! Has the ability to run very well but maybe another season is needed before he gets my full backing. Shammick Boy for me could be thrown in after his Chepstow run or it could be that he didn't have much to beat that day. The flatter track will suit him but I'm sure he is more of a chaser in his own way and is left alone. The two selections which I am picking and only just realising both ran in the same race at Cheltenham last year are KAZLIAN and ARNAUD. The former who is trained by David Pipe who made a cracking front running performance last year at the festival before being run out of it and this year he hasn't really had much look at getting to the front. I wouldn’t be surprised if he sat near the front and got them all at it. One that he might have at it is Arnaud, who you can see that he is a daw stayer and will need to get stuck in with a few to jump. The both finished 4th (Kazlian) and 5th (Arnaud) in last year’s Fred Winter and showed they are well thought of. Both worthy of each-way support in what looks an open race.
That's all folks, a long write up, but hopefully one of them may be able to run on into next week! Follow me at blue_bajan or send us an email on [email protected] on your thoughts on the race! BE LUCKY :D