What an encounter we have on the books this year with the Hennessy looking highly competitative as ever, but trying to find the winner cant always be easy. Denman was the only horse in the last 5 years I could find and recent winners in Carruthers and Diamond Harry are two that run in tomorrows race. Lets hope this year, we can find the hidden gem!
Tidal Bay for me is possibly the horse that always finds me out. Beating Noland a few years back at the festival to winning the BET 365 chase. I just couldn't have him. But with likeable runs of late, he is starting to win me over. I see tomorrow just being a path to other races he will be targeted for. Top weight is just too much for the Nicholls charge and I have to oppose him in this 2012 renewal. Soll and Alfie Spinner for me both look to be out of it as both form lines aren't too strong and will be aimed at differences races over the season.
Ikorodu Road ran a very good race at the course back in March after just missing out to Junior at Doncaster. He will like the track but clearly looks to be outclassed today with much better handicapped horses facing him. Harry The Viking did beat Ikorodu Road last season and after a long staying campaign, he has pulled up in the Scottish National and recentley Cheltenham. I would rather be seeing the Nicholls 7 year old over a longer distance and not in such a decent race as I can see him struggling and not turning in near the front. Magnanimity looks to also struggle after a patchy few seasons since a big run at Cheltenham. Stamina is an unknown and Gigginstown have a better chance in the race.
So far we have ruled out Tidal Bay, Soll, Alfie Spinner, Magnanimity, Harry The Viking and Ikorodu Road. All respectable on their day, but reasons to note why they should struggle in this hot contest.
Carruthers and Diamond Harry will have to be at their best to take this years Hennessy as neither have shown anything of their top form this season. Carruthers could be reluctant to start and Diamond Harry just needs everything right for him to even run a decent race. Ill put my hands up and say sorry If either of these two previous winners win but I cant have them with stolen money! Likewise with Lion Na Bearnai, big prices in two hot contests he has won (Irish National and decent Grade 2 Chase prior), but I think he needs further to push his credentials and prove he can be followed for a campaign. Roberto Goldback is a likable sort who won well for Nicky Henderson at Ascot last time when beating Alfie Spinner who runs in todays race by 13 1/2 lengths. He was a frustrating horse back in Ireland and before his win a few weeks ago, his last win was off a mark of 154, which shows today, he has an extra 8lbs to find and I can see him running a brave race but finding it all a bit too much. Another runner today who's mark clearly rules them out in my opinion is Fruity O'Rooney. Yes, he ran a brave race from the front at Cheltenham, but a mark of 145 which he runs off today, is a massive 11lbs more than his last win 12 months ago and I find the Gary Moore charge to struggle. Saint Are was a decent hurdler back in his day when winning at the Aintree festival, with a shock to some at 33/1 beating Cantlow. His chase form however doesn't look to have the right profile for the race. The track will suit today but he isn't an out and out performer at this grade and he seems like he could find one or two too good.
Teaforthree for me looks like he could run a bold race from the front. He is being targeted at the Welsh National, but he could prove to take some pegging back turning in. He was opposable last time after a long lay-off (248 Days) and having looked back over his career, he has always needed the run. He runs off a likeable weight over 10st 6lbs, which is a lot lower of what he has been racing off. Creditable runs at Cheltenham and Chepstow, both left handed tracks and undulating, he might find a balance with the Newbury course the way it is and I'm having an each way punt of the Rebecca Curtis runner. The Package, is a bit of a Marmite 'You either love him, or you hate him' and I'm a big fan! However, after a great run at Wincanton in the Badger Ales chase at Wincanton, he might be up against it here. A fragile sort and a lightly race campaign, isn't usually the profile of the race winner of a Hennessy and although I backed him at Wincanton last time out, I dont think the race was too strong. Pipe however can work his ways but I think Cheltenham will be better for The Package.
Hold On Julio has a great profile has proved to be one of Alan King's better horses in the stable. He ran a good race at Cheltenham in October but made a hash of one or two fences when jumping around. He seemed to stay up the hill but when turning in, he had every chance to get up with Balthazar King and Galaxy Rock. I think he is still learning and next year, I will have more faith in him once seeing him learn the tricks of the trade once more. First Leiutenant for myself, is one of my favourite horses in training at the moment as I have followed him for a few seasons. Gigginstown Stud have had some of my favourite horses including War Of Attrition and Weapons Amnesty and First Leiutenant makes the crowd. My heart says to me that this race just wont suit the 7 year old. I'm not sure whether I think the hussle and bussle of the race will not suit or whether Cheltenham brings out the best in him as he is a fighter however. Ill be gutted if he takes this as I wont be backing him, but whatever he does, I wont be writing him off for any of his next big races. Duke Of Lucca isn't the best of jumpers and in my eyes, only runs a decent race when contesting in small fields. He is learning however and In my opinion, he isn't a Hennessy horse. A small runner race at Doncaster or Cheltenham will suit this fella more.
Bobs Worth has the class to take this Hennessy with a bit of good jumping here and a bit there. Never out the first three in all his career starts and has some very tidy form indeed. I was at Newbury last year when narrowly beating Cue Card and he was never given a serious crack up the running and got there well with a good ride from Barry Geragthy. The thing that worries me is that, Cheltenham he runs his better races and again, like many of these, he is still learning. He looks to have a good chance of winning the Gold Cup this year and if he is to do so, he should really be taking this too. I'd like to see a bit more value of the Henderson charge as this 3m 2f around Newbury will get some going and the weight to others in the race could be the difference. Friscol Depot, who runs below 10st today with Sam Waley-Cohen taking off 5lbs makes him of interest. He travels quite quirky as he looks to be full of running and at Ascot last time, he was there abouts when falling 2 out (Usual 3 out). He was campaigned well over in Ireland and one of his highlights was a reasonable 2nd in a 3 runner race against Flemenstar, who we all know is some animal. Low weight and ground that should suit, him and Teaforthree are of interest for me in THE HENNESSY!
Selection: Friscol Depot
Next Best: Teaforthree
Tidal Bay for me is possibly the horse that always finds me out. Beating Noland a few years back at the festival to winning the BET 365 chase. I just couldn't have him. But with likeable runs of late, he is starting to win me over. I see tomorrow just being a path to other races he will be targeted for. Top weight is just too much for the Nicholls charge and I have to oppose him in this 2012 renewal. Soll and Alfie Spinner for me both look to be out of it as both form lines aren't too strong and will be aimed at differences races over the season.
Ikorodu Road ran a very good race at the course back in March after just missing out to Junior at Doncaster. He will like the track but clearly looks to be outclassed today with much better handicapped horses facing him. Harry The Viking did beat Ikorodu Road last season and after a long staying campaign, he has pulled up in the Scottish National and recentley Cheltenham. I would rather be seeing the Nicholls 7 year old over a longer distance and not in such a decent race as I can see him struggling and not turning in near the front. Magnanimity looks to also struggle after a patchy few seasons since a big run at Cheltenham. Stamina is an unknown and Gigginstown have a better chance in the race.
So far we have ruled out Tidal Bay, Soll, Alfie Spinner, Magnanimity, Harry The Viking and Ikorodu Road. All respectable on their day, but reasons to note why they should struggle in this hot contest.
Carruthers and Diamond Harry will have to be at their best to take this years Hennessy as neither have shown anything of their top form this season. Carruthers could be reluctant to start and Diamond Harry just needs everything right for him to even run a decent race. Ill put my hands up and say sorry If either of these two previous winners win but I cant have them with stolen money! Likewise with Lion Na Bearnai, big prices in two hot contests he has won (Irish National and decent Grade 2 Chase prior), but I think he needs further to push his credentials and prove he can be followed for a campaign. Roberto Goldback is a likable sort who won well for Nicky Henderson at Ascot last time when beating Alfie Spinner who runs in todays race by 13 1/2 lengths. He was a frustrating horse back in Ireland and before his win a few weeks ago, his last win was off a mark of 154, which shows today, he has an extra 8lbs to find and I can see him running a brave race but finding it all a bit too much. Another runner today who's mark clearly rules them out in my opinion is Fruity O'Rooney. Yes, he ran a brave race from the front at Cheltenham, but a mark of 145 which he runs off today, is a massive 11lbs more than his last win 12 months ago and I find the Gary Moore charge to struggle. Saint Are was a decent hurdler back in his day when winning at the Aintree festival, with a shock to some at 33/1 beating Cantlow. His chase form however doesn't look to have the right profile for the race. The track will suit today but he isn't an out and out performer at this grade and he seems like he could find one or two too good.
Teaforthree for me looks like he could run a bold race from the front. He is being targeted at the Welsh National, but he could prove to take some pegging back turning in. He was opposable last time after a long lay-off (248 Days) and having looked back over his career, he has always needed the run. He runs off a likeable weight over 10st 6lbs, which is a lot lower of what he has been racing off. Creditable runs at Cheltenham and Chepstow, both left handed tracks and undulating, he might find a balance with the Newbury course the way it is and I'm having an each way punt of the Rebecca Curtis runner. The Package, is a bit of a Marmite 'You either love him, or you hate him' and I'm a big fan! However, after a great run at Wincanton in the Badger Ales chase at Wincanton, he might be up against it here. A fragile sort and a lightly race campaign, isn't usually the profile of the race winner of a Hennessy and although I backed him at Wincanton last time out, I dont think the race was too strong. Pipe however can work his ways but I think Cheltenham will be better for The Package.
Hold On Julio has a great profile has proved to be one of Alan King's better horses in the stable. He ran a good race at Cheltenham in October but made a hash of one or two fences when jumping around. He seemed to stay up the hill but when turning in, he had every chance to get up with Balthazar King and Galaxy Rock. I think he is still learning and next year, I will have more faith in him once seeing him learn the tricks of the trade once more. First Leiutenant for myself, is one of my favourite horses in training at the moment as I have followed him for a few seasons. Gigginstown Stud have had some of my favourite horses including War Of Attrition and Weapons Amnesty and First Leiutenant makes the crowd. My heart says to me that this race just wont suit the 7 year old. I'm not sure whether I think the hussle and bussle of the race will not suit or whether Cheltenham brings out the best in him as he is a fighter however. Ill be gutted if he takes this as I wont be backing him, but whatever he does, I wont be writing him off for any of his next big races. Duke Of Lucca isn't the best of jumpers and in my eyes, only runs a decent race when contesting in small fields. He is learning however and In my opinion, he isn't a Hennessy horse. A small runner race at Doncaster or Cheltenham will suit this fella more.
Bobs Worth has the class to take this Hennessy with a bit of good jumping here and a bit there. Never out the first three in all his career starts and has some very tidy form indeed. I was at Newbury last year when narrowly beating Cue Card and he was never given a serious crack up the running and got there well with a good ride from Barry Geragthy. The thing that worries me is that, Cheltenham he runs his better races and again, like many of these, he is still learning. He looks to have a good chance of winning the Gold Cup this year and if he is to do so, he should really be taking this too. I'd like to see a bit more value of the Henderson charge as this 3m 2f around Newbury will get some going and the weight to others in the race could be the difference. Friscol Depot, who runs below 10st today with Sam Waley-Cohen taking off 5lbs makes him of interest. He travels quite quirky as he looks to be full of running and at Ascot last time, he was there abouts when falling 2 out (Usual 3 out). He was campaigned well over in Ireland and one of his highlights was a reasonable 2nd in a 3 runner race against Flemenstar, who we all know is some animal. Low weight and ground that should suit, him and Teaforthree are of interest for me in THE HENNESSY!
Selection: Friscol Depot
Next Best: Teaforthree