We enter the final week of the 2015/2016 Jumps Season, and it's been a fine one of that! We have this weekend another National, and that's the Scottish National! Only a week ago, we saw a likeable novice scoop the Crabbies Grand National and it would have took some picking to pick Rule The World to take the prize. We look forward to what looks another solid renewal. Here are my thoughts for big race this Saturday:
Trends can support opinion, but they can also miss those hidden gems amongst the field. For example, Rule The World in last weeks 'biggy' could never have been picked, with 10 out the last 10 winners all winning over fences. There are no stand out trends for me tomorrow to use. It was a real shame for Pineu De Re to miss out in last weeks Grand National, however the BHA are trying to emulate the 'best 40 horses' to compete and unfortunately he falls short on current form. At the grand age of 13, he does however go against the trends with age, but also to win two prestigious Grand Nationals. Alvarado is another likeable stayer with a 4th to his name in 2015 GN race, but to only have one run this season, he is best watched. Tour Des Champs will relish the ground, but falls out of my category for that bit of class to win a race of this nature. The run last time out probably came a little too quick after winning the Sussex National. Top Wood was travelling well at Cheltenham 2 runs back before falling, he was tried over hurdles last time out and Pipe can train big race winners, but he is a little quirky and I would prefer backing him in a lower grade. Dolatulo is a frustrating sort. He showed real ability when winning the 2014 Rowland Meyrick, however he hasn't been able to get his head in front since.
Trends can support opinion, but they can also miss those hidden gems amongst the field. For example, Rule The World in last weeks 'biggy' could never have been picked, with 10 out the last 10 winners all winning over fences. There are no stand out trends for me tomorrow to use. It was a real shame for Pineu De Re to miss out in last weeks Grand National, however the BHA are trying to emulate the 'best 40 horses' to compete and unfortunately he falls short on current form. At the grand age of 13, he does however go against the trends with age, but also to win two prestigious Grand Nationals. Alvarado is another likeable stayer with a 4th to his name in 2015 GN race, but to only have one run this season, he is best watched. Tour Des Champs will relish the ground, but falls out of my category for that bit of class to win a race of this nature. The run last time out probably came a little too quick after winning the Sussex National. Top Wood was travelling well at Cheltenham 2 runs back before falling, he was tried over hurdles last time out and Pipe can train big race winners, but he is a little quirky and I would prefer backing him in a lower grade. Dolatulo is a frustrating sort. He showed real ability when winning the 2014 Rowland Meyrick, however he hasn't been able to get his head in front since.
Another Greatrex trained runner is Ballyculla, who's form for me is another who lacks the ability to take a prize against some interesting runners. Milborough won the Eider Chase last season and returned to form last time out, but I would like to have seen more this campaign to feature here. Cause Of Causes will have to put in a fantastic effort to win tomorrows feature with top weight (11st 12lbs). It was a great performance to win the Kim Muir just 30 days ago and place at best for me.
Unfortunately Milansbar was in a 'catch me if you can' race in the Midlands National last time after Red Devil Lads bolted clear for a few circuits and it was a gruelling race. He is a likeable sort but I think he is one to keep in the notepad for next season wants he gains more experience and he is a novice chaser still. Heathfield heads the market tomorrow (10/1JF as of Friday evening) and Mr Martin can train for sure. The thing that fears me with Heathfield is he might find it all a bit too much. He won a nice race at Punchestown last May, but he hasn't showed too much consistency. I know Tony Martin might have campaigned him, but I would like to follow a more reliable sort in a race like this. Straidnahanna's form for me is fragile, 6lbs hike for his win at Wetherby, but there isn't much to shout about in what he has achieved this season. Gold Features is another horse who links in with Straidnahanna's form and lacks the ability to win this.
The Moffatt's family struck gold with Highland Lodge when winning first time out for them in the Becher at the end of 2015. Having Dolatulo in behind as well, he has been saved for this. He lost his way with Emma Lavelle, and a new scenery might have done him the world of good. A likeable staying chaser in his younger days, however the long trip for me looks a step too far. Goodtoknow could well feature at the business end for Kerry Lee, who has had a fantastic first season. 3 runs ago, the 8 year olds form was poor. However with two solid enough runs, he warrants respect. Benvolio franked the form at Newbury however at Cheltenham only this week, let it down. Place at best but I would have liked to have seen more this campaign. Masters Hill has had so much ability, but has been frustrating and has never be able to step up to the plate when needed. It would top off some season that it has been for the Tizzard's, however I think he falls short this year. Vicente's form looks reasonable, behind the RSA winner Blacklion earlier in the season and also behind the Ultima Business Solutions winner Un Temps Pour Tout. But for me the 7 year old will have to perform even better, he is a quirky type who I think maybe one to preserve with over the next few years in staying chases. Bottom weight Sun Cloud looks up against it with form lines reading ok, but lacks the ability to feature. Emperor's Choice is another runner who on his day is such a gutsy horse and could win a race of this nature, but the Welsh National run was quite poor and you would like to see him do more before backing him.
ROYALE KNIGHT is one of the selections tomorrow. He has won two Durham Nationals and is the type to keep plugging on in which will be a war of attrition tomorrow for sure. Dr Newland knows how to train a National winner (Pineau De Re I needn't remind you) and is well weighted. He should run a nice race. Vyto Du Roc does not jump out at me for staying such a distance and should be followed over shorter trips next season after showing he is useful in 2015 Neptune and also 2016 running of the RSA. It would be story of the century for Mouse Morris to win the Irish, English and Scottish Grand Nationals and Folsom Blue has a reasonable chance to emulate that. My concern would be that only 19 days ago, he ran in a the Irish National and it may come too soon. I'm sure Mouse knows better than me however!
A Good Skin has never really looked to me a Scottish National winner but connections are useful in staying races. It was a much better run last time out in the Kim Muir, however I would have my concerns over this distance. SPOOKYDOOKEY ran a creditable 4th in the Midlands National last time and showed his grit and determination back at Newbury in November. I really like his profile and think he could feature in the finish. I am sticking with my 'Novice Tag' avoidance tomorrow and that means Seeyouatmidnight possibly will fall short tomorrow. This season the 8 year old has been well place by Sandy Thompson. I think next year we will see a much better horse and a race like this, I would like to see experience over the larger obstacles. Measureofmydreams was one of my selections at Cheltenham in March and is another who could run well. Joint favourite at the moment, the master Willie Mullins could well take the prize. I think for me, I would like to see him do it on a stage like this as he is still inexperienced in such a calibre of race. Definitely has the ability though! Fine Rightly may not have been given a chance by the handicapper and that's the reason I wont be backing the Crawford trained 8 year old. I really like the horse and when winning in January 2015 at the course, his jumping was spectacular. If he was a few pounds lower, I would be following! BEAREA BORU is my third and final selection in such a mine field. Improvement after improvement in his last 3 runs, a second season chaser who his a thorough stayer and Peter Bowen saddled the 2014 winner in Al Co.
Royale Knight 16/1 each-way
Berea Boru 20/1 each-way
Spookydookey 20/1 each-way
Thanks for your time - follow me @blue_bajan and would appreciate any feedback! MAY THE ODDS BE IN YOUR FAVOUR!
A Good Skin has never really looked to me a Scottish National winner but connections are useful in staying races. It was a much better run last time out in the Kim Muir, however I would have my concerns over this distance. SPOOKYDOOKEY ran a creditable 4th in the Midlands National last time and showed his grit and determination back at Newbury in November. I really like his profile and think he could feature in the finish. I am sticking with my 'Novice Tag' avoidance tomorrow and that means Seeyouatmidnight possibly will fall short tomorrow. This season the 8 year old has been well place by Sandy Thompson. I think next year we will see a much better horse and a race like this, I would like to see experience over the larger obstacles. Measureofmydreams was one of my selections at Cheltenham in March and is another who could run well. Joint favourite at the moment, the master Willie Mullins could well take the prize. I think for me, I would like to see him do it on a stage like this as he is still inexperienced in such a calibre of race. Definitely has the ability though! Fine Rightly may not have been given a chance by the handicapper and that's the reason I wont be backing the Crawford trained 8 year old. I really like the horse and when winning in January 2015 at the course, his jumping was spectacular. If he was a few pounds lower, I would be following! BEAREA BORU is my third and final selection in such a mine field. Improvement after improvement in his last 3 runs, a second season chaser who his a thorough stayer and Peter Bowen saddled the 2014 winner in Al Co.
Royale Knight 16/1 each-way
Berea Boru 20/1 each-way
Spookydookey 20/1 each-way
Thanks for your time - follow me @blue_bajan and would appreciate any feedback! MAY THE ODDS BE IN YOUR FAVOUR!